Lazio U20 1–0 Bologna U20: Result & Stats

Lazio U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bologna U20

8/31/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Stadio Mirko Fersini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lazio U2039%

×Draw27%

Bologna U2034%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lazio U20Expected goals in this matchBologna U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.22

Lazio U20

1.31

Bologna U20

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

1.53

creates per match

1.10

1.34

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Lazio U20

1.53

Bologna U20

1.10

allows per match

Lazio U20

1.34

Bologna U20

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio U20+0.00on par

Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lazio U20 or draw

66%

Lazio U20 or Bologna U20

73%

Draw or Bologna U20

61%

Winning margin

Lazio U20 wins by 2+

17%

Bologna U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lazio U20 1+ goals

73%

Lazio U20 2+ goals

38%

Lazio U20 3+ goals

14%

Bologna U20 1+ goals

70%

Bologna U20 2+ goals

34%

Bologna U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lazio U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U20 attack 1.53 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Lazio U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lazio U20 scores more

39%

level

27%

Bologna U20 scores more

34%

Lazio U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lazio U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff