Lazio U19 0–3 Milan U19: Result & Stats

Lazio U19

FT

0 – 3

Milan U19

1/23/2021

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7Centro Sportivo Lazio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lazio U1940%

×Draw25%

Milan U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lazio U19Expected goals in this matchMilan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.40

Lazio U19

1.52

Milan U19

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

1.62

creates per match

1.13

1.68

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Lazio U19

1.62

Milan U19

1.13

allows per match

Lazio U19

1.68

Milan U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Milan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw

65%

Lazio U19 or Milan U19

75%

Draw or Milan U19

60%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

20%

Milan U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals

78%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

45%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

20%

Milan U19 1+ goals

75%

Milan U19 2+ goals

41%

Milan U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 1.62 + Milan U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Milan U19 attack 1.13 + Lazio U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lazio U19 scores more

40%

level

25%

Milan U19 scores more

35%

Lazio U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff