Lazio U19 2–1 Frosinone U19: Result & Stats

Lazio U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Frosinone U19

3/27/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 22Centro Sportivo Campo Aquile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lazio U1951%

×Draw22%

Frosinone U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lazio U19Expected goals in this matchFrosinone U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.40

Lazio U19

1.98

Frosinone U19

1.40

Lazio U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

2.64

creates per match

1.93

0.86

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Lazio U19

2.64

Frosinone U19

1.93

allows per match

Lazio U19

0.86

Frosinone U19

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Frosinone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Frosinone U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw

73%

Lazio U19 or Frosinone U19

78%

Draw or Frosinone U19

49%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

29%

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals

86%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

59%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

31%

Frosinone U19 1+ goals

75%

Frosinone U19 2+ goals

41%

Frosinone U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

Frosinone U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 2.64 + Frosinone U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.98

Frosinone U19 attack 1.93 + Lazio U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lazio U19 scores more

51%

level

22%

Frosinone U19 scores more

27%

Lazio U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff