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Lazio U19 vs Feyenoord U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Lazio U19
Lazio U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Feyenoord U19
Feyenoord U19
11/7/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Stadio Mirko Fersini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lazio U1915%
×Draw18%
Feyenoord U1967%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio U19
1.04
Feyenoord U19
2.42

Feyenoord U19 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lazio U19
0.33
Feyenoord U19
2.50

allows per match

Lazio U19
2.33
Feyenoord U19
1.75

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par
Feyenoord U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Feyenoord U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw
33%
Lazio U19 or Feyenoord U19
82%
Draw or Feyenoord U19
85%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+
5%
Feyenoord U19 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals
65%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
28%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
9%
Feyenoord U19 1+ goals
91%
Feyenoord U19 2+ goals
69%
Feyenoord U19 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
18%
Feyenoord U19 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Feyenoord U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 0.33 + Feyenoord U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Feyenoord U19 attack 2.50 + Lazio U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Lazio U19 scores more
15%
level
18%
Feyenoord U19 scores more
67%

Feyenoord U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Feyenoord U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio U19 vs Feyenoord U19

Feyenoord U19 beat Lazio U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mirko Fersini in Formello.