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Lazio U19 vs Bologna U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Lazio U19
Lazio U19
FT
1 – 1
Bologna U19
Bologna U19
6/23/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Relegation Play-outCentro Sportivo Lazio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lazio U1945%
×Draw23%
Bologna U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio U19
1.75
Bologna U19
1.46

Lazio U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

creates per match

Lazio U19
1.62
Bologna U19
1.24

allows per match

Lazio U19
1.68
Bologna U19
1.88

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par
Bologna U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Bologna U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw
68%
Lazio U19 or Bologna U19
77%
Draw or Bologna U19
55%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+
24%
Bologna U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals
83%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
52%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
25%
Bologna U19 1+ goals
77%
Bologna U19 2+ goals
43%
Bologna U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Bologna U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Bologna U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 1.62 + Bologna U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bologna U19 attack 1.24 + Lazio U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lazio U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Bologna U19 scores more
32%

Lazio U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Lazio U19 1–1 Bologna U19

Lazio U19 and Bologna U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Lazio in Formello.