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Mzuni vs Blue Eagles — Super League 2026

Mzuni
Mzuni
FT
1 – 1
Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
1/3/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mzuni27%
×Draw31%
Blue Eagles42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mzuni
0.82
Blue Eagles
1.09

Blue Eagles creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Mzuni
0.68
Blue Eagles
0.97

allows per match

Mzuni
1.21
Blue Eagles
0.96

finishing

Mzuni+0.00on par
Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mzuni ↓

Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mzuni or draw
58%
Mzuni or Blue Eagles
69%
Draw or Blue Eagles
73%

Winning margin

Mzuni wins by 2+
9%
Blue Eagles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mzuni 1+ goals
56%
Mzuni 2+ goals
20%
Mzuni 3+ goals
5%
Blue Eagles 1+ goals
66%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
30%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mzuni (draw refunded)
40%
Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mzuni at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Mzuni defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mzuni scores more
27%
level
31%
Blue Eagles scores more
42%

Blue Eagles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mzuni 1–1 Blue Eagles

Mzuni and Blue Eagles drew 1-1 in Super League on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.