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Lavis vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
10/2/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis25%
×Draw25%
Montecchio Maggiore51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
1.06
Montecchio Maggiore
1.64

Montecchio Maggiore creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
49%
Lavis or Montecchio Maggiore
75%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
75%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
9%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
65%
Lavis 2+ goals
29%
Lavis 3+ goals
9%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
81%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
49%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
33%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lavis scores more
25%
level
25%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
51%

Montecchio Maggiore at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Lavis 2–2 Montecchio Maggiore

Lavis and Montecchio Maggiore drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.