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Lavis vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mestre
Mestre
G. Turchetta 33' (pen)
4/27/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 37Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis25%
×Draw27%
Mestre49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
0.94
Mestre
1.44

Mestre creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
51%
Lavis or Mestre
73%
Draw or Mestre
75%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
9%
Mestre wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
61%
Lavis 2+ goals
24%
Lavis 3+ goals
7%
Mestre 1+ goals
76%
Mestre 2+ goals
42%
Mestre 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
34%
Mestre (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Mestre attack 0.94 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lavis scores more
25%
level
27%
Mestre scores more
49%

Mestre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
G. TurchettaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Lavis 0–1 Mestre

Mestre beat Lavis 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 27, 2025.

Goals: G. Turchetta (33' pen).

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis in Lavis.