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Lavis vs Este — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Este
Este
G. Momodu 27'
G. Cogo 25'
G. Caccin 18', 15' (pen)
F. Piccardi 10'
12/8/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 17Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis24%
×Draw26%
Este50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
0.96
Este
1.52

Este creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 102 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Este
1.09

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Este
1.24

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Este+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
50%
Lavis or Este
74%
Draw or Este
76%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
8%
Este wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
62%
Lavis 2+ goals
25%
Lavis 3+ goals
7%
Este 1+ goals
78%
Este 2+ goals
45%
Este 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
32%
Este (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Este attack 1.09 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lavis scores more
24%
level
26%
Este scores more
50%

Este at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
F. Piccardi
15'
G. CaccinPenalty
18'
G. Caccin
25'
G. Cogo
27'
G. Momodu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Lavis 1–4 Este

Este beat Lavis 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 8, 2024.

Goals: F. Piccardi (10'), G. Caccin (15' pen, 18'), G. Cogo (25'), G. Momodu (27').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis in Lavis.