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Lavis vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
10/13/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis21%
×Draw24%
Dolomiti Bellunesi55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
0.96
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.71

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 78% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
45%
Lavis or Dolomiti Bellunesi
76%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
79%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
7%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
62%
Lavis 2+ goals
25%
Lavis 3+ goals
7%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
82%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
51%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
28%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lavis scores more
21%
level
24%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
55%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Lavis 0–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Lavis 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.