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Lavis vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
12/22/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis23%
×Draw26%
Cjarlins Muzane51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
0.96
Cjarlins Muzane
1.55

Cjarlins Muzane creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
49%
Lavis or Cjarlins Muzane
74%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
77%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
8%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
62%
Lavis 2+ goals
25%
Lavis 3+ goals
7%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
79%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
46%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
31%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lavis scores more
23%
level
26%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
51%

Cjarlins Muzane at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Lavis 0–3 Cjarlins Muzane

Cjarlins Muzane beat Lavis 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis in Lavis.