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Lavis vs Caravaggio — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
1/15/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis26%
×Draw26%
Caravaggio48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
1.03
Caravaggio
1.50

Caravaggio creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Caravaggio
1.05

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Caravaggio
1.37

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
52%
Lavis or Caravaggio
74%
Draw or Caravaggio
74%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
10%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
64%
Lavis 2+ goals
28%
Lavis 3+ goals
9%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
78%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
44%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
35%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Caravaggio defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.03

Caravaggio attack 1.05 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lavis scores more
26%
level
26%
Caravaggio scores more
48%

Caravaggio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lavis vs Caravaggio

Caravaggio beat Lavis 5-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis in Lavis.