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Lavis vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
N. Valle Dalla 88'
S. Ischia 69'
J. Amorth 59'
G. Mioni 90+3'
A. Marchiori 90+1'
12/1/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis21%
×Draw27%
Bassano Virtus52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
0.80
Bassano Virtus
1.44

Bassano Virtus creates 80% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
48%
Lavis or Bassano Virtus
73%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
79%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
6%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
55%
Lavis 2+ goals
19%
Lavis 3+ goals
5%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
76%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
42%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
29%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lavis scores more
21%
level
27%
Bassano Virtus scores more
52%

Bassano Virtus at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
J. Amorth
69'
S. Ischia
88'
N. Valle Dalla
90+1'
A. Marchiori
90+3'
G. Mioni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lavis vs Bassano Virtus

Lavis beat Bassano Virtus 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on December 1, 2024.

Goals: J. Amorth (59'), S. Ischia (69'), N. Valle Dalla (88'), A. Marchiori (90+1'), G. Mioni (90+3').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis in Lavis.