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LaVe / KPR vs Härmä — Suomen Cup 2018

LaVe / KPR
LaVe / KPR
FT
0 – 6
Härmä
Härmä
3/21/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundSäästöpankki Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

LaVe / KPR5%
×Draw8%
Härmä87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LaVe / KPR
1.10
Härmä
4.33

Härmä creates 294% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

LaVe / KPR
1.20
Härmä
5.25

allows per match

LaVe / KPR
3.40
Härmä
1.00

finishing

LaVe / KPR+0.00on par
Härmä+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LaVe / KPR ↓

Härmä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–37%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

LaVe / KPR or draw
13%
LaVe / KPR or Härmä
92%
Draw or Härmä
95%

Winning margin

LaVe / KPR wins by 2+
2%
Härmä wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

LaVe / KPR 1+ goals
67%
LaVe / KPR 2+ goals
30%
LaVe / KPR 3+ goals
10%
Härmä 1+ goals
98%
Härmä 2+ goals
92%
Härmä 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

LaVe / KPR (draw refunded)
6%
Härmä (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LaVe / KPR at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Härmä away — creates 5.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LaVe / KPR attack 1.20 + Härmä defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Härmä attack 5.25 + LaVe / KPR defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 4.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

LaVe / KPR scores more
5%
level
8%
Härmä scores more
87%

Härmä at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Härmä will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LaVe / KPR vs Härmä

Härmä beat LaVe / KPR 6-0 in Suomen Cup on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Säästöpankki Areena in Hämeenlinna.