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Laval vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 2018

Laval
Laval
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
O. Kouassi 8'
A. Badji 28'
1/10/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Laval38%
×Draw28%
RED Star FC 9334%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laval
1.25
RED Star FC 93
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 53 away

creates per match

Laval
1.19
RED Star FC 93
1.04

allows per match

Laval
1.28
RED Star FC 93
1.32

finishing

Laval+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Laval or draw
66%
Laval or RED Star FC 93
72%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
62%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+
17%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals
71%
Laval 2+ goals
36%
Laval 3+ goals
13%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
69%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
32%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)
53%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.19 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 + Laval defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Laval scores more
38%
level
28%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
34%

Laval at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
O. KouassiLavalLaval · D
8.0

Match Events

8'
O. Kouassi
28'
A. Badji↳ R. Hachem
63'
M. Camara← K. Zohi
63'
T. Thomas← M. Sellouki
65'
Hacene Benali
73'
B. Danger← H. Benali
73'
D. Durand← F. Dembi
82'
Jimmy Roye
84'
H. Mbock← S. Renel
85'
J. Tell← J. Roye
85'
S. Doucouré← M. Tchokounté
85'
J. Eickmayer← M. Ifnaoui

Possession

47%Laval

Shots

9Laval

Pass accuracy

50%Laval

Statistics

LavalRED
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots9
9Corners5
10Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots9
6On Target4
2Off Target3
1Blocked2
7Inside Box8
2Outside Box1
Passing
47%Possession53%
435Total Passes509
372Accurate Passes433
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Ligue 2: Laval 1–1 RED Star FC 93

Laval and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on January 10, 2025.

Goals: O. Kouassi (8'), A. Badji (28').

RED Star FC 93 controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Francis Le Basser in Laval.