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Laval vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Laval
Laval
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Niort
Niort
J. Maggiotti 59'
J. Roye 14'
A. Sagna 24'
11/5/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Laval44%
×Draw27%
Niort29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laval
1.36
Niort
1.06

Laval creates 28% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 92 away

creates per match

Laval
1.19
Niort
0.85

allows per match

Laval
1.28
Niort
1.54

finishing

Laval+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Laval or draw
71%
Laval or Niort
73%
Draw or Niort
56%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+
20%
Niort wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals
74%
Laval 2+ goals
39%
Laval 3+ goals
16%
Niort 1+ goals
65%
Niort 2+ goals
29%
Niort 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)
60%
Niort (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.19 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Niort attack 0.85 + Laval defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Laval scores more
44%
level
27%
Niort scores more
29%

Laval at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. MaggiottiLavalLaval · M
8.3

Match Events

14'
J. Roye
24'
A. Sagna↳ C. Kaboré
33'
G. Kilama← C. Kaboré
59'
J. Maggiotti↳ A. Gonçalves
69'
K. Rocheteau← S. Benchamma
72'
K. N'Chobi← G. Durbant
76'
Y. Merdji← J. Olaitan
76'
L. Vallier← D. Durivaux
83'
M. Baudry← B. Goncalves
83'
J. Adéoti← J. Maggiotti
90+1'
D. Sylla← Z. Naidji

Possession

62%Laval

Shots

10Laval

Pass accuracy

52%Laval

Statistics

LavalNiort
Overview
62%Possession38%
10Total Shots5
4Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots5
6On Target2
3Off Target3
1Blocked0
8Inside Box5
2Outside Box0
Passing
62%Possession38%
583Total Passes348
504Accurate Passes273
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls10
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Laval vs Niort

Laval beat Niort 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 5, 2022.

Goals: J. Roye (14'), A. Sagna (24'), J. Maggiotti (59').

Laval controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Francis Le Basser in Laval.