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Laval vs Concarneau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Laval
Laval
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Concarneau
Concarneau
7/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Maurice Philippot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Laval64%
×Draw23%
Concarneau13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laval
1.69
Concarneau
0.59

Laval creates 186% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Laval
2.25
Concarneau
0.43

allows per match

Laval
0.75
Concarneau
1.14

finishing

Laval+0.00on par
Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Concarneau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Laval or draw
87%
Laval or Concarneau
77%
Draw or Concarneau
36%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+
37%
Concarneau wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals
82%
Laval 2+ goals
50%
Laval 3+ goals
24%
Concarneau 1+ goals
45%
Concarneau 2+ goals
12%
Concarneau 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)
84%
Concarneau (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 2.25 + Concarneau defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Concarneau attack 0.43 + Laval defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Laval scores more
64%
level
23%
Concarneau scores more
13%

Laval at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Laval 2–0 Concarneau

Laval beat Concarneau 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Philippot in Gorron.