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Laval vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Laval
Laval
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caen
Caen
9/2/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Laval41%
×Draw27%
Caen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laval
1.36
Caen
1.19

Laval creates 14% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 107 away

creates per match

Laval
1.19
Caen
1.10

allows per match

Laval
1.28
Caen
1.53

finishing

Laval+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Laval or draw
67%
Laval or Caen
73%
Draw or Caen
59%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+
19%
Caen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals
74%
Laval 2+ goals
39%
Laval 3+ goals
16%
Caen 1+ goals
70%
Caen 2+ goals
33%
Caen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)
55%
Caen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.19 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Caen attack 1.10 + Laval defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Laval scores more
41%
level
27%
Caen scores more
33%

Laval at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Laval 2 – 1 Caen

Laval beat Caen 2-1 in Ligue 2 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Francis Le Basser in Laval.