Laval 1–2 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Laval

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bastia

R. Labeau-Lascary 57'

F. Conté 85'

F. Bianchini 52'

3/30/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Laval39%

×Draw27%

Bastia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LavalExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.16

Laval

1.26

Bastia

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 91 away

1.19

creates per match

1.03

1.28

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Laval

1.19

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Laval

1.28

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laval+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Laval or draw

66%

Laval or Bastia

73%

Draw or Bastia

61%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+

17%

Bastia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals

72%

Laval 2+ goals

36%

Laval 3+ goals

13%

Bastia 1+ goals

69%

Bastia 2+ goals

32%

Bastia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)

53%

Bastia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.19 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bastia attack 1.03 + Laval defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Laval scores more

39%

level

27%

Bastia scores more

34%

Laval at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Placide

Bastia · G

8.2

Match Events

24'

34'

35'

37'

47'

52'

F. Bianchini↳ F. Conté

57'

R. Labeau-Lascary

73'

A. Bobichon← J. Kadile

73'

M. Siby← C. Vincent

73'

B. Santelli← G. Charbonnier

74'

83'

83'

84'

85'

86'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LavalBastia

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots7

6Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots7

10On Target3

6Off Target2

2Blocked2

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

572Total Passes289

467Accurate Passes172

82%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Ligue 2: Laval 1–2 Bastia

Bastia beat Laval 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 30, 2024.

Goals: F. Bianchini (52'), R. Labeau-Lascary (57'), F. Conté (85').

Laval controlled possession (66%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Francis Le Basser in Laval.

Laval vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Laval 1–2 Bastia