Laval 1–0 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Laval

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arles

G. Givet 21' (OG)

2/27/2015

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Laval46%

×Draw27%

Arles27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LavalExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.99

Laval

1.39

Arles

0.99

Laval creates 40% more chances

Season form · 205 home / 76 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

1.20

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Laval

1.35

Arles

0.78

allows per match

Laval

1.20

Arles

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laval+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Laval or draw

73%

Laval or Arles

73%

Draw or Arles

54%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+

22%

Arles wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals

75%

Laval 2+ goals

40%

Laval 3+ goals

16%

Arles 1+ goals

63%

Arles 2+ goals

26%

Arles 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)

63%

Arles (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 205 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.35 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Arles attack 0.78 + Laval defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Laval scores more

46%

level

27%

Arles scores more

27%

Laval at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

G. GivetOwn goal

37'

43'

56'

68'

69'

71'

L. Touré← I. Bennacer

83'

A. Monfray← L. Guerriero

87'

M. Bourgeois← W. Saïd

90'

Anthony Robic

90'

Teji Savanier

Possession

Statistics

LavalArles

Overview

55%Possession45%

6Corners6

17Fouls16

Shots

4On Target3

4Off Target6

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Laval vs Arles

Laval beat Arles 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2015.

Goals: G. Givet (21' o.g.).

Laval dominated possession with 55% of the ball.

The match was played at Stade Francis Le Basser in Laval.

Laval vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Statistics

Match Recap: Laval vs Arles