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Ringkøbing vs Jammerbugt — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Ringkøbing
Ringkøbing
FT
1 – 2
Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
8/19/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 3Green Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ringkøbing37%
×Draw24%
Jammerbugt39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ringkøbing
1.48
Jammerbugt
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ringkøbing
1.45
Jammerbugt
1.69

allows per match

Ringkøbing
1.36
Jammerbugt
1.50

finishing

Ringkøbing+0.00on par
Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ringkøbing ↓

Jammerbugt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ringkøbing or draw
61%
Ringkøbing or Jammerbugt
76%
Draw or Jammerbugt
63%

Winning margin

Ringkøbing wins by 2+
18%
Jammerbugt wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ringkøbing 1+ goals
77%
Ringkøbing 2+ goals
43%
Ringkøbing 3+ goals
19%
Jammerbugt 1+ goals
78%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
45%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ringkøbing (draw refunded)
49%
Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ringkøbing at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Jammerbugt away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ringkøbing attack 1.45 + Jammerbugt defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jammerbugt attack 1.69 + Ringkøbing defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ringkøbing scores more
37%
level
24%
Jammerbugt scores more
39%

Jammerbugt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jammerbugt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ringkøbing vs Jammerbugt

Jammerbugt beat Ringkøbing 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Green Arena in Ringkøbing.