LAUTP 2–2 Union Plaani: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

LAUTP

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Union Plaani

3/11/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

LAUTP34%

×Draw20%

Union Plaani45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LAUTPExpected goals in this matchUnion Plaani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.20

LAUTP

1.90

Union Plaani

2.20

Union Plaani creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

3.00

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

LAUTP

1.80

Union Plaani

3.00

allows per match

LAUTP

1.40

Union Plaani

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LAUTP+0.00on par

Union Plaani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LAUTP ↓

Union Plaani →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

LAUTP or draw

55%

LAUTP or Union Plaani

80%

Draw or Union Plaani

66%

Winning margin

LAUTP wins by 2+

18%

Union Plaani wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

LAUTP 1+ goals

85%

LAUTP 2+ goals

56%

LAUTP 3+ goals

29%

Union Plaani 1+ goals

89%

Union Plaani 2+ goals

64%

Union Plaani 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

LAUTP (draw refunded)

43%

Union Plaani (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

LAUTP at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Union Plaani away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

LAUTP attack 1.80 + Union Plaani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Union Plaani attack 3.00 + LAUTP defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

LAUTP scores more

34%

level

20%

Union Plaani scores more

45%

Union Plaani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Plaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff