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LAUTP vs Riverball — Suomen Cup 2018

LAUTP
LAUTP
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Riverball
Riverball
4/9/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LAUTP20%
×Draw18%
Riverball62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LAUTP
1.40
Riverball
2.54

Riverball creates 81% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

LAUTP
1.80
Riverball
3.67

allows per match

LAUTP
1.40
Riverball
1.00

finishing

LAUTP+0.00on par
Riverball+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LAUTP ↓

Riverball →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

LAUTP or draw
38%
LAUTP or Riverball
82%
Draw or Riverball
80%

Winning margin

LAUTP wins by 2+
8%
Riverball wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

LAUTP 1+ goals
75%
LAUTP 2+ goals
41%
LAUTP 3+ goals
17%
Riverball 1+ goals
92%
Riverball 2+ goals
72%
Riverball 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

LAUTP (draw refunded)
24%
Riverball (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LAUTP at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Riverball away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LAUTP attack 1.80 + Riverball defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Riverball attack 3.67 + LAUTP defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

LAUTP scores more
20%
level
18%
Riverball scores more
62%

Riverball at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Riverball will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LAUTP vs Riverball

Riverball beat LAUTP 3-1 in Suomen Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.