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LAUTP vs KJP — Suomen Cup 2018

LAUTP
LAUTP
FT
0 – 2
KJP
KJP
4/4/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

LAUTP21%
×Draw19%
KJP60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LAUTP
1.46
KJP
2.51

KJP creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

LAUTP
1.80
KJP
3.63

allows per match

LAUTP
1.40
KJP
1.13

finishing

LAUTP+0.00on par
KJP+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LAUTP ↓

KJP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

LAUTP or draw
40%
LAUTP or KJP
81%
Draw or KJP
79%

Winning margin

LAUTP wins by 2+
9%
KJP wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

LAUTP 1+ goals
77%
LAUTP 2+ goals
43%
LAUTP 3+ goals
18%
KJP 1+ goals
92%
KJP 2+ goals
71%
KJP 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

LAUTP (draw refunded)
26%
KJP (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LAUTP at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

KJP away — creates 3.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LAUTP attack 1.80 + KJP defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

KJP attack 3.63 + LAUTP defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

LAUTP scores more
21%
level
19%
KJP scores more
60%

KJP at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "KJP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: LAUTP 0–2 KJP

KJP beat LAUTP 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 4, 2023.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.