Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LAUTP vs JäPS — Suomen Cup 2018

LAUTP
LAUTP
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
JäPS
JäPS
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundLauritsalan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

LAUTP23%
×Draw20%
JäPS57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LAUTP
1.44
JäPS
2.31

JäPS creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

LAUTP
1.80
JäPS
3.23

allows per match

LAUTP
1.40
JäPS
1.08

finishing

LAUTP+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LAUTP ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

LAUTP or draw
43%
LAUTP or JäPS
80%
Draw or JäPS
77%

Winning margin

LAUTP wins by 2+
10%
JäPS wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

LAUTP 1+ goals
76%
LAUTP 2+ goals
42%
LAUTP 3+ goals
18%
JäPS 1+ goals
90%
JäPS 2+ goals
67%
JäPS 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

LAUTP (draw refunded)
29%
JäPS (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LAUTP at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

JäPS away — creates 3.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LAUTP attack 1.80 + JäPS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

JäPS attack 3.23 + LAUTP defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LAUTP scores more
23%
level
20%
JäPS scores more
57%

JäPS at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LAUTP vs JäPS

JäPS beat LAUTP 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Lauritsalan tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.