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LAUTP / 2 vs Union Plaani — Suomen Cup 2018

LAUTP / 2
LAUTP / 2
FT
1 – 5
Union Plaani
Union Plaani
3/2/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LAUTP / 225%
×Draw17%
Union Plaani57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LAUTP / 2
2.00
Union Plaani
3.00

Union Plaani creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

LAUTP / 2
2.00
Union Plaani
3.00

allows per match

LAUTP / 2
3.00
Union Plaani
2.00

finishing

LAUTP / 2+0.00on par
Union Plaani+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LAUTP / 2 ↓

Union Plaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

LAUTP / 2 or draw
43%
LAUTP / 2 or Union Plaani
83%
Draw or Union Plaani
75%

Winning margin

LAUTP / 2 wins by 2+
13%
Union Plaani wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

LAUTP / 2 1+ goals
86%
LAUTP / 2 2+ goals
59%
LAUTP / 2 3+ goals
32%
Union Plaani 1+ goals
95%
Union Plaani 2+ goals
79%
Union Plaani 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

LAUTP / 2 (draw refunded)
31%
Union Plaani (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LAUTP / 2 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Union Plaani away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LAUTP / 2 attack 2.00 + Union Plaani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Union Plaani attack 3.00 + LAUTP / 2 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LAUTP / 2 scores more
25%
level
17%
Union Plaani scores more
57%

Union Plaani at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union Plaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: LAUTP / 2 1–5 Union Plaani

Union Plaani beat LAUTP / 2 5-1 in Suomen Cup on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.