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Lauterach vs Lochau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Lauterach
Lauterach
FT
1 – 1
Lochau
Lochau
11/4/2023Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 13Sportanlage Bruno Pezzey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lauterach44%
×Draw25%
Lochau31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lauterach
1.56
Lochau
1.27

Lauterach creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lauterach
1.54
Lochau
1.85

allows per match

Lauterach
0.69
Lochau
1.58

finishing

Lauterach+0.00on par
Lochau+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lauterach ↓

Lochau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lauterach or draw
69%
Lauterach or Lochau
75%
Draw or Lochau
56%

Winning margin

Lauterach wins by 2+
22%
Lochau wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lauterach 1+ goals
79%
Lauterach 2+ goals
46%
Lauterach 3+ goals
21%
Lochau 1+ goals
72%
Lochau 2+ goals
36%
Lochau 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lauterach (draw refunded)
59%
Lochau (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lauterach at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Lochau away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.58 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lauterach attack 1.54 + Lochau defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lochau attack 1.85 + Lauterach defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lauterach scores more
44%
level
25%
Lochau scores more
31%

Lauterach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lauterach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Lauterach 1–1 Lochau

Lauterach and Lochau drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Bruno Pezzey in Lauterach.