Lautaro de Buin 0–1 Santiago Morning

Lautaro de Buin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santiago Morning

3/27/2022

Copa Chile · 2nd RoundEstadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lautaro de Buin24%

×Draw27%

Santiago Morning49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lautaro de BuinExpected goals in this matchSantiago Morning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.40

Lautaro de Buin

0.90

Santiago Morning

1.40

Santiago Morning creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

0.40

creates per match

1.20

1.60

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin

0.40

Santiago Morning

1.20

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.60

Santiago Morning

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Santiago Morning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw

51%

Lautaro de Buin or Santiago Morning

73%

Draw or Santiago Morning

76%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

8%

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

59%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

23%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

6%

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

75%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

41%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

33%

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 0.40 + Santiago Morning defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Santiago Morning attack 1.20 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more

24%

level

27%

Santiago Morning scores more

49%

Santiago Morning at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff