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Lautaro de Buin vs Magallanes — Copa Chile 2019

Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Magallanes
Magallanes
6/16/2021Copa ChileCopa Chile · 1st RoundEstadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lautaro de Buin18%
×Draw23%
Magallanes59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lautaro de Buin
0.86
Magallanes
1.78

Magallanes creates 107% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin
0.40
Magallanes
1.96

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.60
Magallanes
1.32

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw
41%
Lautaro de Buin or Magallanes
77%
Draw or Magallanes
82%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
6%
Magallanes wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
58%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
21%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
6%
Magallanes 1+ goals
83%
Magallanes 2+ goals
53%
Magallanes 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
23%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 0.40 + Magallanes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.86

Magallanes attack 1.96 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more
18%
level
23%
Magallanes scores more
59%

Magallanes at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lautaro de Buin vs Magallanes

Lautaro de Buin and Magallanes drew 1-1 in Copa Chile on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.