Lautaro de Buin 3–3 General Velásquez

Lautaro de Buin

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

General Velásquez

11/2/2021

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Lautaro de Buin44%

×Draw26%

General Velásquez30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lautaro de BuinExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.16

Lautaro de Buin

1.47

General Velásquez

1.16

Lautaro de Buin creates 27% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 77 away

1.63

creates per match

1.06

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.63

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.25

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw

70%

Lautaro de Buin or General Velásquez

74%

Draw or General Velásquez

56%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

22%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

77%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

43%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

18%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

69%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

32%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

60%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more

44%

level

26%

General Velásquez scores more

30%

Lautaro de Buin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff