General Velásquez 4–1 Lautaro de Buin

General Velásquez

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lautaro de Buin

7/30/2022

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal de San Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

General Velásquez47%

×Draw26%

Lautaro de Buin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchLautaro de Buin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

General Velásquez

1.48

Lautaro de Buin

1.06

General Velásquez creates 40% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 58 away

1.43

creates per match

1.09

1.03

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

Lautaro de Buin

1.09

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

Lautaro de Buin

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Lautaro de Buin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

73%

General Velásquez or Lautaro de Buin

74%

Draw or Lautaro de Buin

53%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

23%

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

77%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

43%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

19%

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

65%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

29%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

63%

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

General Velásquez scores more

47%

level

26%

Lautaro de Buin scores more

27%

General Velásquez at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff