Lautaro de Buin 0–3 D. Melipilla: Result & Stats

Lautaro de Buin

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

D. Melipilla

3/24/2019

Copa Chile · 1st RoundEstadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lautaro de Buin17%

×Draw26%

D. Melipilla56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lautaro de BuinExpected goals in this matchD. Melipilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.50

Lautaro de Buin

0.70

D. Melipilla

1.50

D. Melipilla creates 114% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.40

creates per match

1.40

1.60

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin

0.40

D. Melipilla

1.40

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.60

D. Melipilla

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

D. Melipilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw

44%

Lautaro de Buin or D. Melipilla

74%

Draw or D. Melipilla

83%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

5%

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

50%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

16%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

3%

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

78%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

44%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

24%

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 0.40 + D. Melipilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

D. Melipilla attack 1.40 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more

17%

level

26%

D. Melipilla scores more

56%

D. Melipilla at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff