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Lautaro de Buin vs Barnechea — Copa Chile 2019

Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barnechea
Barnechea
4/12/2023Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional 8th finalsEstadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lautaro de Buin29%
×Draw24%
Barnechea46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lautaro de Buin
1.25
Barnechea
1.64

Barnechea creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin
0.40
Barnechea
1.67

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.60
Barnechea
2.11

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw
54%
Lautaro de Buin or Barnechea
76%
Draw or Barnechea
71%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
12%
Barnechea wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
71%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
36%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
13%
Barnechea 1+ goals
81%
Barnechea 2+ goals
49%
Barnechea 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
39%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 0.40 + Barnechea defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Barnechea attack 1.67 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more
29%
level
24%
Barnechea scores more
46%

Barnechea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lautaro de Buin vs Barnechea

Barnechea beat Lautaro de Buin 2-1 in Copa Chile on April 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.