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Lausanne vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
1/15/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lausanne40%
×Draw32%
Unisport Bafang28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.02
Unisport Bafang
0.81

Lausanne creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lausanne
1.00
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Lausanne
0.58
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
72%
Lausanne or Unisport Bafang
68%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
60%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
15%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
64%
Lausanne 2+ goals
27%
Lausanne 3+ goals
8%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
56%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
19%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
58%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.00 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Lausanne defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lausanne scores more
40%
level
32%
Unisport Bafang scores more
28%

Lausanne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Lausanne 0–2 Unisport Bafang

Unisport Bafang beat Lausanne 2-0 in Elite Two on January 15, 2023.