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Lausanne vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
2/12/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lausanne49%
×Draw31%
Stade de Bertoua20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.19
Stade de Bertoua
0.65

Lausanne creates 83% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Lausanne
1.00
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

Lausanne
0.58
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
80%
Lausanne or Stade de Bertoua
69%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
51%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
22%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
70%
Lausanne 2+ goals
33%
Lausanne 3+ goals
12%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
48%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
14%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
71%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.00 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Lausanne defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lausanne scores more
49%
level
31%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
20%

Lausanne at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne vs Stade de Bertoua

Lausanne beat Stade de Bertoua 1-0 in Elite Two on February 12, 2023.