Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lausanne vs Lion Blessé — Elite Two 2020

Lausanne
Lausanne
CANC
00:00
Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
4/30/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lausanne47%
×Draw31%
Lion Blessé22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.17
Lion Blessé
0.70

Lausanne creates 67% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lausanne
1.00
Lion Blessé
0.83

allows per match

Lausanne
0.58
Lion Blessé
1.33

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
Lion Blessé+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Lion Blessé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
78%
Lausanne or Lion Blessé
69%
Draw or Lion Blessé
53%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
21%
Lion Blessé wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
69%
Lausanne 2+ goals
33%
Lausanne 3+ goals
11%
Lion Blessé 1+ goals
50%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
16%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
68%
Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Lion Blessé away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.00 + Lion Blessé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lion Blessé attack 0.83 + Lausanne defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lausanne scores more
47%
level
31%
Lion Blessé scores more
22%

Lausanne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lausanne vs Lion Blessé — Match Preview

Lausanne face Lion Blessé on April 30, 2022 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.