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Lausanne vs FC Rangers — Elite Two 2020

Lausanne
Lausanne
CANC
00:00
FC Rangers
FC Rangers
4/19/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lausanne56%
×Draw27%
FC Rangers17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.46
FC Rangers
0.68

Lausanne creates 115% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lausanne
1.00
FC Rangers
0.78

allows per match

Lausanne
0.58
FC Rangers
1.91

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
FC Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

FC Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
83%
Lausanne or FC Rangers
73%
Draw or FC Rangers
44%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
29%
FC Rangers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
77%
Lausanne 2+ goals
43%
Lausanne 3+ goals
18%
FC Rangers 1+ goals
49%
FC Rangers 2+ goals
15%
FC Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
76%
FC Rangers (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

FC Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.00 + FC Rangers defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Rangers attack 0.78 + Lausanne defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lausanne scores more
56%
level
27%
FC Rangers scores more
17%

Lausanne at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lausanne host FC Rangers

April 19, 2022: Lausanne take on FC Rangers in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.