Lausanne 5–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Lausanne

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

FC Basel 1893

10/26/2025

Super League · Round 10Stade de la Tuiliere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lausanne51%

×Draw23%

FC Basel 189326%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LausanneExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.21

Lausanne

1.80

FC Basel 1893

1.21

Lausanne creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.13

creates per match

1.46

0.95

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lausanne

2.13

FC Basel 1893

1.46

allows per match

Lausanne

0.95

FC Basel 1893

1.47

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Lausanne+0.30scores more

FC Basel 1893-0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw

74%

Lausanne or FC Basel 1893

77%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

49%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+

28%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals

83%

Lausanne 2+ goals

54%

Lausanne 3+ goals

27%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

70%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

34%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)

67%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.13 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.80

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.46 + Lausanne defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lausanne scores more

51%

level

23%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

26%

Lausanne at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff