Lausanne 0–0 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Lausanne

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

5/10/2024

Super League · Relegation Round - 2Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lausanne52%

×Draw22%

FC Basel 189326%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LausanneExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.38

Lausanne

2.02

FC Basel 1893

1.38

Lausanne creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.05

creates per match

1.70

1.06

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Lausanne

2.05

FC Basel 1893

1.70

allows per match

Lausanne

1.06

FC Basel 1893

1.99

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Lausanne+0.05on par

FC Basel 1893-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw

74%

Lausanne or FC Basel 1893

78%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

48%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+

30%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals

87%

Lausanne 2+ goals

60%

Lausanne 3+ goals

33%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

75%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

40%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)

67%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.99 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.05 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.02

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.70 + Lausanne defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lausanne scores more

52%

level

22%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

26%

Lausanne at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Hitz

FC Basel 1893 · G

8.9

Match Events

44'

52'

58'

58'

59'

59'

D. Kacuri← L. Avdullahu

63'

Dion Kacuri

69'

K. Sène← R. Ilie

76'

76'

77'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LausanneFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots11

2.16Expected Goals (xG)1.28

9Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots11

6On Target2

7Off Target6

5Blocked3

14Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

465Total Passes346

363Accurate Passes249

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides6