Lausanne 3–0 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Lausanne

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Basel 1893

A. Sanches 69'

K. Sène 66' (pen), 19' (pen)

10/29/2023

Super League · Round 12Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Lausanne50%

×Draw23%

FC Basel 189328%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LausanneExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.36

Lausanne

1.88

FC Basel 1893

1.36

Lausanne creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

2.01

creates per match

1.50

1.22

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Lausanne

2.01

FC Basel 1893

1.50

allows per match

Lausanne

1.22

FC Basel 1893

1.74

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Lausanne+0.14scores more

FC Basel 1893+0.03on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw

72%

Lausanne or FC Basel 1893

77%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

50%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+

28%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals

85%

Lausanne 2+ goals

56%

Lausanne 3+ goals

29%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

74%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

39%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)

64%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.01 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.50 + Lausanne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lausanne scores more

50%

level

23%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

28%

Lausanne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Sène

Lausanne · F

8.2

Match Events

17'

Alvyn SanchesPenalty confirmed

19'

K. SènePenalty

37'

Taulant Xhaka

46'

K. Rüegg← M. Dräger

46'

F. Frei← T. Barry

63'

Berkay DabanlıPenalty confirmed

64'

Renato Veiga

66'

M. Nanizayamo← B. Dabanlı

66'

K. SènePenalty

67'

M. Malone← Đ. Jovanović

67'

69'

77'

77'

77'

78'

85'

Chris KablanCard upgrade

86'

Chris Kablan

86'

J. Gauto← J. Augustin

90+6'

90+8'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LausanneFC

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots9

2.86Expected Goals (xG)0.47

5Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots9

8On Target3

4Off Target3

5Blocked3

11Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

346Total Passes403

270Accurate Passes328

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3