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Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
N. Boranijašević 82'
S. Kukuruzović 29' (pen)
H. Mahou 10'
V. Stocker 85'
Arthur Cabral 76', 32' (pen)
4/24/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Lausanne50%
×Draw23%
FC Basel 189328%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.88
FC Basel 1893
1.36

Lausanne creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lausanne
2.01
FC Basel 1893
1.50

allows per match

Lausanne
1.22
FC Basel 1893
1.74

finishing

Lausanne+0.14scores more
FC Basel 1893+0.03on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
72%
Lausanne or FC Basel 1893
77%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
50%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
28%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
85%
Lausanne 2+ goals
56%
Lausanne 3+ goals
29%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
74%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
39%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
64%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.01 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.50 + Lausanne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lausanne scores more
50%
level
23%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
28%

Lausanne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98
Arthur CabralFC Basel 1893FC Basel 1893 · F
9.3

Match Events

10'
H. Mahou↳ N. Boranijašević
25'
M. Nanizayamo← P. Flo
29'
S. KukuruzovićPenalty
30'
Noah Loosli
32'
Arthur CabralPenalty
38'
Cameron Puertas Castro
46'
L. Zuffi← T. Klose
58'
Afimico Pululu← M. Sene
69'
T. Zai← S. Kukuruzović
69'
G. Barès← L. Da Cunha
76'
Arthur Cabral↳ V. Stocker
78'
Silvan Widmer
80'
Valentin Stocker
81'
J. Bolingi← H. Mahou
81'
M. Tsoungui← T. Suzuki
81'
R. van Wolfswinkel← D. Males
82'
N. Boranijašević
85'
V. Stocker↳ Arthur Cabral
89'
Trazie Thomas Zai

Possession

38%Lausanne

Shots

24Lausanne

Pass accuracy

48%Lausanne

Statistics

LausanneFC
Overview
38%Possession62%
24Total Shots17
5Corners3
6Fouls10
Shots
24Total Shots17
9On Target8
11Off Target6
4Blocked3
17Inside Box9
7Outside Box8
Passing
38%Possession62%
344Total Passes557
266Accurate Passes469
77%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
6Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Super League: Lausanne 3–3 FC Basel 1893

Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 drew 3-3 in Super League on April 24, 2021.

Goals: H. Mahou (10'), S. Kukuruzović (29' pen), Arthur Cabral (32' pen, 76'), N. Boranijašević (82'), V. Stocker (85').

FC Basel 1893 controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 24.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.