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Lausanne vs Aigle Royal de Moungo — Elite Two 2020

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
0 – 0
Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
11/16/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lausanne38%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal de Moungo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.18
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lausanne
1.00
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.64

allows per match

Lausanne
0.58
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.36

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Aigle Royal de Moungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
66%
Lausanne or Aigle Royal de Moungo
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal de Moungo
62%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
16%
Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
69%
Lausanne 2+ goals
33%
Lausanne 3+ goals
12%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
67%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
30%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
52%
Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.00 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.64 + Lausanne defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lausanne scores more
38%
level
28%
Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
34%

Lausanne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Lausanne 0–0 Aigle Royal de Moungo

Lausanne and Aigle Royal de Moungo drew 0-0 in Elite Two on November 16, 2022.