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Lausanne Sport II vs Yverdon Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yverdon Sport II
Yverdon Sport II
3/23/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lausanne Sport II59%
×Draw20%
Yverdon Sport II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne Sport II
2.30
Yverdon Sport II
1.33

Lausanne Sport II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lausanne Sport II
2.57
Yverdon Sport II
1.47

allows per match

Lausanne Sport II
1.19
Yverdon Sport II
2.03

finishing

Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne Sport II ↓

Yverdon Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lausanne Sport II or draw
79%
Lausanne Sport II or Yverdon Sport II
80%
Draw or Yverdon Sport II
41%

Winning margin

Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
37%
Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
90%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
67%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
40%
Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals
74%
Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals
38%
Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
73%
Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne Sport II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Yverdon Sport II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne Sport II attack 2.57 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.30

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.47 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lausanne Sport II scores more
59%
level
20%
Yverdon Sport II scores more
21%

Lausanne Sport II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne Sport II vs Yverdon Sport II

Lausanne Sport II beat Yverdon Sport II 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.