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Lausanne Sport II vs Monthey — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Monthey
Monthey
8/31/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lausanne Sport II54%
×Draw21%
Monthey26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne Sport II
2.17
Monthey
1.46

Lausanne Sport II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 73 away

creates per match

Lausanne Sport II
2.57
Monthey
1.74

allows per match

Lausanne Sport II
1.19
Monthey
1.77

finishing

Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par
Monthey+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne Sport II ↓

Monthey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lausanne Sport II or draw
74%
Lausanne Sport II or Monthey
79%
Draw or Monthey
46%

Winning margin

Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
32%
Monthey wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
89%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
64%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
36%
Monthey 1+ goals
77%
Monthey 2+ goals
43%
Monthey 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
68%
Monthey (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne Sport II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Monthey away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.77 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne Sport II attack 2.57 + Monthey defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.17

Monthey attack 1.74 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lausanne Sport II scores more
54%
level
21%
Monthey scores more
26%

Lausanne Sport II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Lausanne Sport II 4–1 Monthey

Lausanne Sport II beat Monthey 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.