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Launceston United U21 vs Northern Rangers — Tasmania Northern Championship 2026

Launceston United U21
Launceston United U21
FT
1 – 4
Northern Rangers
Northern Rangers
3/16/2024Tasmania Northern ChampionshipTasmania Northern Championship · Round 1Birch Avenue 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Launceston United U216%
×Draw9%
Northern Rangers85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Launceston United U21
1.13
Northern Rangers
4.07

Northern Rangers creates 260% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Launceston United U21
1.18
Northern Rangers
3.89

allows per match

Launceston United U21
4.25
Northern Rangers
1.07

finishing

Launceston United U21+0.00on par
Northern Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Launceston United U21 ↓

Northern Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Launceston United U21 or draw
15%
Launceston United U21 or Northern Rangers
91%
Draw or Northern Rangers
94%

Winning margin

Launceston United U21 wins by 2+
2%
Northern Rangers wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Launceston United U21 1+ goals
68%
Launceston United U21 2+ goals
31%
Launceston United U21 3+ goals
11%
Northern Rangers 1+ goals
98%
Northern Rangers 2+ goals
90%
Northern Rangers 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Launceston United U21 (draw refunded)
7%
Northern Rangers (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Launceston United U21 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 4.25 · 28 matches

Northern Rangers away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Launceston United U21 attack 1.18 + Northern Rangers defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Northern Rangers attack 3.89 + Launceston United U21 defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 4.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Launceston United U21 scores more
6%
level
9%
Northern Rangers scores more
85%

Northern Rangers at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Northern Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Northern Championship: Launceston United U21 1–4 Northern Rangers

Northern Rangers beat Launceston United U21 4-1 in Tasmania Northern Championship on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Birch Avenue 1 in Launceston.