Launceston U21 2–3 Northern Rangers: Result & Stats

Launceston U21

FT

2 – 3

Northern Rangers

3/22/2024

Tasmania Northern Championship · Round 2Prospect Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Launceston U2129%

×Draw18%

Northern Rangers53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Launceston U21Expected goals in this matchNorthern Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

2.87

Launceston U21

2.15

Northern Rangers

2.87

Northern Rangers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

3.22

creates per match

3.89

1.85

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Launceston U21

3.22

Northern Rangers

3.89

allows per match

Launceston U21

1.85

Northern Rangers

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Launceston U21+0.00on par

Northern Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Launceston U21 ↓

Northern Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Launceston U21 or draw

47%

Launceston U21 or Northern Rangers

82%

Draw or Northern Rangers

71%

Winning margin

Launceston U21 wins by 2+

15%

Northern Rangers wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Launceston U21 1+ goals

88%

Launceston U21 2+ goals

63%

Launceston U21 3+ goals

36%

Northern Rangers 1+ goals

94%

Northern Rangers 2+ goals

77%

Northern Rangers 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Launceston U21 (draw refunded)

36%

Northern Rangers (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Launceston U21 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Northern Rangers away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Launceston U21 attack 3.22 + Northern Rangers defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.15

Northern Rangers attack 3.89 + Launceston U21 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Launceston U21 scores more

29%

level

18%

Northern Rangers scores more

53%

Northern Rangers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Northern Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff