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Launceston City vs Glenorchy Knights — Tasmania NPL 2026

Launceston City
Launceston City
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Glenorchy Knights
Glenorchy Knights
3/23/2024Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 2Prospect Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Launceston City32%
×Draw21%
Glenorchy Knights47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Launceston City
1.76
Glenorchy Knights
2.16

Glenorchy Knights creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

Launceston City
2.05
Glenorchy Knights
2.47

allows per match

Launceston City
1.84
Glenorchy Knights
1.48

finishing

Launceston City+0.00on par
Glenorchy Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Launceston City ↓

Glenorchy Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Launceston City or draw
53%
Launceston City or Glenorchy Knights
79%
Draw or Glenorchy Knights
68%

Winning margin

Launceston City wins by 2+
16%
Glenorchy Knights wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Launceston City 1+ goals
83%
Launceston City 2+ goals
52%
Launceston City 3+ goals
26%
Glenorchy Knights 1+ goals
88%
Glenorchy Knights 2+ goals
63%
Glenorchy Knights 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Launceston City (draw refunded)
40%
Glenorchy Knights (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Launceston City at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.84 · 56 matches

Glenorchy Knights away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Launceston City attack 2.05 + Glenorchy Knights defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.76

Glenorchy Knights attack 2.47 + Launceston City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Launceston City scores more
32%
level
21%
Glenorchy Knights scores more
47%

Glenorchy Knights at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Glenorchy Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Launceston City vs Glenorchy Knights

Glenorchy Knights beat Launceston City 4-0 in Tasmania NPL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Prospect Park 1 in Launceston.