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Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston City — Tasmania NPL 2026

Glenorchy Knights
Glenorchy Knights
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Launceston City
Launceston City
5/30/2026Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 10KGV Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Glenorchy Knights47%
×Draw21%
Launceston City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glenorchy Knights
2.04
Launceston City
1.63

Glenorchy Knights creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Glenorchy Knights
2.43
Launceston City
1.98

allows per match

Glenorchy Knights
1.27
Launceston City
1.64

finishing

Glenorchy Knights+0.00on par
Launceston City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenorchy Knights ↓

Launceston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Glenorchy Knights or draw
69%
Glenorchy Knights or Launceston City
79%
Draw or Launceston City
53%

Winning margin

Glenorchy Knights wins by 2+
27%
Launceston City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Glenorchy Knights 1+ goals
87%
Glenorchy Knights 2+ goals
60%
Glenorchy Knights 3+ goals
33%
Launceston City 1+ goals
80%
Launceston City 2+ goals
48%
Launceston City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Glenorchy Knights (draw refunded)
60%
Launceston City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenorchy Knights at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Launceston City away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenorchy Knights attack 2.43 + Launceston City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.04

Launceston City attack 1.98 + Glenorchy Knights defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Glenorchy Knights scores more
47%
level
21%
Launceston City scores more
31%

Glenorchy Knights at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Glenorchy Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston City

Launceston City beat Glenorchy Knights 2-1 in Tasmania NPL on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at KGV Park.