CSK 1–2 USFAS Bamako: Result & Stats

CSK

FT

1 – 2

USFAS Bamako

1/31/2020

Première Division · Round 17Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

CSK42%

×Draw27%

USFAS Bamako31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKExpected goals in this matchUSFAS Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

CSK

1.32

USFAS Bamako

1.10

CSK creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 94 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

CSK

1.60

USFAS Bamako

1.00

allows per match

CSK

1.20

USFAS Bamako

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSK+0.00on par

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSK ↓

USFAS Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSK or draw

69%

CSK or USFAS Bamako

73%

Draw or USFAS Bamako

58%

Winning margin

CSK wins by 2+

19%

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CSK 1+ goals

73%

CSK 2+ goals

38%

CSK 3+ goals

15%

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals

67%

USFAS Bamako 2+ goals

30%

USFAS Bamako 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CSK (draw refunded)

57%

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSK at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSK attack 1.60 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

USFAS Bamako attack 1.00 + CSK defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CSK scores more

42%

level

27%

USFAS Bamako scores more

31%

CSK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.