Latvia U19 1–4 Spain U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Spain U19

M. Ivulāns 75'

Peio Huestamendia 90'

Gonzalo Pastor 89'

Óscar Marcos 15'

Dani Díaz 13'

3/25/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Centro Sportivo Real Cosenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia U1921%

×Draw23%

Spain U1955%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchSpain U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.78

Latvia U19

1.01

Spain U19

1.78

Spain U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.20

creates per match

2.17

1.40

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.20

Spain U19

2.17

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.40

Spain U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Spain U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

45%

Latvia U19 or Spain U19

77%

Draw or Spain U19

79%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Spain U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

64%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

27%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

8%

Spain U19 1+ goals

83%

Spain U19 2+ goals

53%

Spain U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.20 + Spain U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Spain U19 attack 2.17 + Latvia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

21%

level

23%

Spain U19 scores more

55%

Spain U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Silins

13'

Dani Díaz

15'

Óscar Marcos

33'

A. Cordero

57'

A. Monserrate Pueyo

63'

D. Radzenieks← R. Kukulis

63'

H. Joksts← R. Kļavinskis

68'

K. Baumanis← M. Gaļajevs

72'

T. Azarovs← T. Mickēvičs

73'

Gonzalo Pastor← Dani Díaz

73'

Peio Huestamendia← Antoñito Cordero

75'

M. Ivulāns

79'

T. Azarovs

84'

Diego Aguado← Daniel Muñoz

84'

Pablo García← Jano Monserrate

89'

Gonzalo Pastor

90+3'

D. Radzenieks

90+1'

Alejandro Granados← Óscar Marcos

90'

Peio Huestamendia

Latvia

Spain

1

Jiménez

2

Fort

3

▼

4

5

14

19

⚽

▼

Marcos

8

▼

Monserrat

7

⚽

▼

Díaz

10

▼

9

12

3

4

14

7

⚽

Ivulāns

20

▼

Mickēvičs

19

Strods

10

▼

Kļavinski

18

▼

Gaļajevs

8

Ohvovorio

11

▼

Kukulis

Manager: V. Dobrecovs

63'▲D. Radzenieks←▼R. Kukulis

63'▲H. Joksts←▼R. Kļavinskis

68'▲K. Baumanis←▼M. Gaļajevs

72'▲T. Azarovs←▼T. Mickēvičs

Latvia U19 substitutes

9Radzenieks15Joksts13Baumanis16Azarovs1Auseklis17Jesse5Purs

Manager: Paco Gallardo

73'▲Gonzalo Pastor←▼Dani Díaz

73'▲Peio Huestamendia←▼Antoñito Cordero

84'▲Diego Aguado←▼Daniel Muñoz

84'▲Pablo García←▼Jano Monserrate

90+1'▲Alejandro Granados←▼Óscar Marcos

Spain U19 substitutes

16Pastor11Huestamendia15Aguado17García18Granados13González6Junyent20Valde

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Latvia U19 1–4 Spain U19

Spain U19 beat Latvia U19 4-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2025.

Goals: Dani Díaz (13'), Óscar Marcos (15'), M. Ivulāns (75'), Gonzalo Pastor (89'), Peio Huestamendia (90').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Real Cosenza in Cosenza.

Latvia U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Latvia U19 1–4 Spain U19